The West’s Potemkin War
Potemkin village — an impressive facade or show designed to hide an undesirable fact or condition. Merriam-Webster
The poet Robert Frost is credited with the line “the only way out is through.” Little could Frost have imagined this phrase might one day best describe the psychological dilemma of a sociopathic man threatening the West with nuclear annihilation. But this is the existential reality of Putin’s choice and like Sophie’s, it is not a good one nor does it bode well for humanity — Putin’s only way out is through.
Similar to the late 1930s, today many leaders in the West continue to stare at a Potemkin war, not seeing it for what it really is. The West is deluding itself that it somehow actually has a choice to not engage. Like Hitler in WWII, this choice has largely already been made for us by Putin. It’s time for NATO and the free world to see what is in plain sight. Putin is at war with us whether we see it or not. The proof only requires one to take Putin at his word — the West has already committed acts of war against Russia.
Time is not on our side. The pace of escalation of this crisis has been nothing short of remarkable. While the failure of Russia’s quick advance toward Kyiv exposed the many shortcomings of their modernized military, it also showed us there is nothing modern about Russia’s demoralizing treatment of its own soldiers or inhumane treatment of its enemies. Most importantly, the war has shown that Putin has no inhibitions to escalate and quickly.
In less than a week of failed attempts at shock and awe, he immediately went scorched-earth genocide. One needs little imagination to visualize the horrors of Putin’s next escalation and there will be nothing virtual about the aftermath of its cloud.
The biggest delusion of the West may be that Putin can be deterred by anything. Speculation about his physical health aside, his mental health has been on full display for over 20 years and debates about him being a rational actor are almost beyond absurd. In what rational world does a man blow up apartment buildings killing his fellow citizens in a false-flag operation designed to start a war in Chechnya and ascend to Presidential power? In what rational world does a man accuse a Jewish-Ukrainian President of being a Nazi or describe a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation, whose security Russia guaranteed in a 1994 treaty, a “special military operation?” In what rational world does a man justify genocide with lies about genocide?
The terrifying irony is that Putin has become the character in his now-famous childhood nightmare, the cornered rat, confronted with no choice but fighting his way out. He is now psychologically dancing to the Kris Kristofferson lyric freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose. Putin is a honey badger; he just doesn’t give a s..t.
Putin won’t be deterred simply because he can’t be. His only way out is through.
Consequently, strategies of cautious and measured steps designed to deter further escalation, buy time, and keep NATO forces out of harm’s way are almost as delusional as the author of this war. These are strategies of those still staring at a Potemkin war and not grasping the existential reckoning confronting the free world.
We must accept this crisis is wrought with escalatory dangers either way the US and NATO moves forward. Believing we can somehow bound Putin’s escalations is nonsense, lest we totally capitulate. We must recognize that continuing half measures of sanctions and limited arming of the Ukrainian armed forces are no less acts of war in Putin’s eyes.
But we must also recognize that Russia is not Putin. The strategy that should be driving NATO is how best to deter those in Moscow who could intervene. Arguably, Putin’s minions might be more effectively deterred by an overwhelming show of NATO force. Unlike Putin, they do not share his savior complex and many of these generals and oligarchs are not hellbent on their own mass destruction for the cause of Putin’s delusional vision of Russian imperial superiority. Not all these folks will be invited to Putin’s lavish bunkers to ride the storm out.
It is simply naïve to believe that half measures will deter escalation. They won’t. At best they will only delay.
Leaders don’t choose history, history chooses them. Western leaders are being called to rise to this moment in history. Ukraine’s leaders are answering the call — they had no choice. But the West’s delusion is that it has a choice. Putin’s war against Western Democracy will march forward regardless of our response be it a tepid and measured containment strategy or one of an overwhelming show of force.
Putin’s only way out is through. This means either Western capitulation or further Russian escalation. The West can continue to delay, but the outcome won’t change and Ukraine will suffer the consequences. The sooner we accept this existential reality, the easier it will be to start acting and stop reacting.
Yes, war with Russia is our worst nightmare. But all evidence indicates that choice is not an amenity being granted by the Gods to the West. Like climate change, we can stare longer at it, piddle around its edges, or even deny it. But reality is like Putin and the honey badger; it doesn’t give a s..t and it’s not going to magically go away.
“History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again.” — Maya Angelou